![]() ![]() ![]() Maxwell, D., Majid, N., Adan, G., Abdirahman, K. Dealing with uncertainty in famine predictions: how complex events affect food security early warning skill in the greater Horn of Africa. The Politics of Information and Analysis in Famines and Extreme Emergencies: Synthesis of Findings from Six Case Studies (Feinstein International Center, 2020). Impact of Desert Locust Infestation on Household Livelihoods and Food Security in Ethiopia (Food and Agriculture Organization, 2020). Climate change and locust outbreak in East Africa. The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2019: Safeguarding Against Economic Slowdowns and Downturns (FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP, WHO, 2019). The few confirmed famines during the 2009–2018 period coincided with both conflict and drought, while locusts had little effect on food security during this period. ![]() Food insecurity remained elevated in pastoral regions for 2 years following a drought, while agricultural regions returned to pre-drought food-security levels in ~12 months. When exposed to drought, pastoralists experienced more widespread, severe and long-lasting food crises than people living in agricultural zones. Although drought remains a leading trigger of food crises, the prevalence of drought-related crises did not increase from 2009 to 2018. Here we use continuous, subnational data to demonstrate that the rise of food insecurity across sub-Saharan Africa that began in 2014 is attributable to an increase in violent conflict, particularly in South Sudan and Nigeria. Conflict, drought and locusts are leading concerns for African food security but the relative importance and spatiotemporal scale of crises resulting from each hazard is poorly characterized. ![]()
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